The Mashal Moment
Could new PLO elections be the trigger for Palestinian political renewal?
Khalid
Mashal should seize this moment. He can lead Hamas into the PLO and
guide the movement toward a new future by renouncing violence, accepting
the two-state solution, and fully embracing the new PLO elections.
Last
Saturday, Palestinian Authority President and PLO Chairman Mahmoud
Abbas announced that elections would be held for the Palestinian
National Council (PNC). This move was most probably a strategic
calculation designed to disadvantage Hamas, which is seen as a rival to
his Fatah movement. Hamas might be at a low point in its popularity
after nearly two years of war in Gaza. Abbas gambles that enough
Palestinians will blame Hamas for the war, leading to a favorable
electoral result for his Fatah party.
Furthermore,
Mr. Abbas specifically welcomed Hamas to enter the election. He stated
they could do so under the existing structure of the PLO and adhere to
all agreements and commitments the PLO has made in the past. These
include agreements recognizing Israel and declaring a Palestinian state
in the West Bank and Gaza.
Hamas
has been simultaneously battered and buoyed by regional events in
recent years. The events of the Arab Spring battered it. However, the
response, sympathy, and solidarity garnered by the war in Gaza buoyed
it. It remains to be seen whether this public sentiment translates into a
Palestinian electoral victory, or if it is primarily a broader Arab and
global response to the war, which would have less effect on the
Palestinian electorate.
Despite
outward appearances, Hamas has suffered from internal divisions on
policy and ideology. A split developed over Syria. Some of Hamas's
leadership sided with the regime of Bashar al-Assad during the Arab
Spring and the ensuing civil war. Consequently, they developed closer
relationships with Hezbollah and Iran. These relationships influenced
the planning, buildup, training, and eventual execution of the October
7th attack by Hamas's military wing in Gaza.
Meanwhile,
another political and ideological bloc, led by Khalid Mashal, sided
with the Islamic Brotherhood and Sunni jihadists within the
anti-government forces during the Syrian civil war. When Hamas's
political leadership was expelled from Syria, Khaled Mashal, along with
his clique in the Hamas politburo, ended up in Qatar and Turkey.
Notably, these countries have close relationships with the Islamic
Brotherhood and share their ideology.
Adding
to this rift is the current one between the Gaza-based military wing
and the political elite living abroad. The military wing is headed by
radicals like Izzy El Din Haddad, who have the final say on what happens
to the Israeli hostages in Gaza. This younger generation of the Gaza
Hamas military wing knows little of the outside world. They were brought
up in a besieged Gaza, and their lives revolve around governing its two
million inhabitants, controlling aid flows, and enforcing strict
Islamic law in the territory. They want the negotiations to return them
to that status quo and care little for the PLO or even the outside world
at large.
This
is the moment for Mr. Mashal to show leadership to his young comrades.
He must explain that what is at stake is more than ruling over a
blighted coastal strip of land. It is a global movement that has grabbed
headlines around the globe with claims for nothing less than
self-determination and statehood for the Palestinian people. Mashal must
explain to his colleagues why now is not the time to think small.
This
moment might appear to be one of weakness to Abbas and Fatah. However,
Hamas has proven in the past that it is an effective campaigner. Today,
it can leverage global notoriety for a global electoral campaign. This
could be the moment to take a cue from the new Syrian president, Ahmad
Al Sharaa. He was once the head of a terrorist organization, the HTS,
but is now the leader of Syria, recognized by America and the Western
world. He has changed his old ways and been integrated into the
international community with help from Turkey, Qatar, and other friendly
Arab and Islamic states.
The
PLO was created at a time when Arab nationalism was a radical ideology.
Its makeup of Arab-aligned groups, leftists, and nationalists reflects
that time period. For a new election to usher in movements aligned with
political Islam is appropriate if it is to be truly representative of
contemporary Palestinian and the regional politics at large.
However,
this will not be easy and will not come without compromise or
sacrifice. Many Palestinians view Hamas as insensitive to the plight and
suffering of Gaza's population. Perhaps it is time for Hamas to pay the
political price and make the political sacrifice necessary to bring
political Islam into the PLO and end this chapter of Palestinian
division.
This
process first requires an end to hostilities in Gaza, which means a
deal on the hostages and disarmament of Hamas. A deal might mean exile
for some Hamas members. It might be time to hand over the running of
Gaza to a temporary technocratic government or even a coalition of Arab,
Islamic, and international forces. It is time for Hamas to reap what it
has sown from the Palestinian public via the ballot box, for better or
worse.
If
October 7th and their 16-year rule in Gaza were so popular, they would
stand to win a majority of seats in the PLO, as they did in the
Palestinian Authority’s Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006. Fatah is not
in great shape (as we will discuss next week), with elderly candidates,
many of whom are seen as corrupt, and internal rivalries and disunity
still plaguing their party. Hamas might have a real chance of winning
the big prize and the international recognition that comes with it.
With
a clear majority in the PLO, Hamas could remake the organization in any
shape it pleases, except that of an armed militia. It must prove that
it is able to abide by the rules of a multi-party democracy and live by
the commitments and agreements signed by the institution they seek
membership in. This means magnanimity in victory and grace in defeat.
Hamas
failed in this challenge once before. After the 2006 election, its
militia forcefully took and held Gaza. Similarly, Fatah has forcefully
held on to the West Bank without an electoral mandate. A new election
for the PLC can be a chance for both to change this dynamic from the
language of force to the language of reason.
Parties
now will be forced to reason with the citizenry and explain why voting
for Hamas might be in their interest. They have the specter of Gaza and
its destruction to overcome when making this argument. However, it might
be the right moment for Mashal and any more moderate Hamas leadership
to bring out the military wing, integrate them into the larger fold of
the movement, and trust that the future holds justice.
An
often-repeated parable in Islamic history is that of Saladin, the
military leader who drove out the Crusaders from the Holy Land, and Omar
Ibn Alkhatab, the second Caliph, who took it peacefully, respecting
those who came before him and acknowledging the claims of all its
people. In entering elections and beginning this new chapter, the
movement’s next manifestation should be closer to Omar Ibn Alkhatab than
Saladin.
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